Winter Storms Spawn Tornadoes Across South

A nasty Christmastime storm system spawned blizzard conditions in some states and at least 15 reported tornadoes in the South, damaging homes, taking out power lines and dangerously snarling holiday travel.

Severe weather swept across the United States during the Christmas holiday, bringing tornadoes and intense thunderstorms to the Gulf Coast, while dumping heavy snow and freezing rain on the Southern Plains.

At least 15 tornadoes were reported today from Texas to Alabama, putting this storm system potentially on track to be one of the largest Christmas day tornado outbreaks on record.

One large tornado was reported in Mobile, Ala., where there are about 19,000 customers without power and 23,429 statewide, according to Alabama Power. Kerry Burns, a Mobile resident originally from Boston, said the storm "sounded like a freight train."

Some buildings in the area, including some churches and a local high school, were reportedly damaged. Ray Uballe, another Mobile resident, said his dad was shaken up.

"He was in his apartment," Uballe said. "He said it sounded like an airplane and then the door flung open and then there was just debris flying."

Douglas Mark Nix, president of the Infirmary Health System, said one of their Mobile hospitals lost power and sustained damage. There were no early reports of injuries to staff or patients.

"We are operating now on generator power," he said. "We do not have substantial damage but we do have a number of windows out and we have some ceiling tiles down, throughout the facility at the main hospital.

"We can run for at least two weeks but I saw power crews out all over the city so I fully expect power to be restored within the next day or so," Nix added.

Melinda Martinez/The Daily Town Talk/AP Photo

Winter Weather Causes Holiday Travel Problems Watch Video

At least eight states were issued blizzard warnings today, as the storms made highways dangerously slick heading into one of the busiest travel days of the year.

Oklahoma got about 7 inches of snow all over the state making for treacherous road conditions. ABC News affiliate KOCO-TV in Oklahoma City said the weather was being blamed for a 21-vehicle wreck on Interstate 40, but no one was seriously injured.

Ice accumulation in Arkansas bent trees and power lines, leaving at least 50,000 customers across the state without power. About 10 inches of snow fell on Fayetteville, Ark.

The storms, which first wreaked havoc on the West Coast before moving east, are being blamed for at least one death in Texas.

Investigators in the Houston area told ABC state KTRK-TV in Houston that a young man was trying to move a downed tree that was blocking the roadway when another one snapped and fell on top of him. He was later pronounced dead at a hopsital.

The last time a number of tornadoes hit the Gulf Coast area around Christmas Day was in 2009, when 22 tornadoes struck on Christmas Eve morning, National Weather Service spokesman Chris Vaccaro told ABC News over email.

The deadliest Christmastime tornado outbreak on record was Dec. 24 to 26, 1982, when 29 tornadoes in Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee and Mississippi killed three people and injured 32.

The last killer tornado around Christmas, Vaccaro said, was a Christmas Eve EF4 in Tennessee in 1988, which killed one person and injured seven. EF4 tornadoes can produce winds up to 200 mph.

No official word yet on the strength of the string of tornadoes reported today.

While some were preparing for a Christmas feast, others were hunkered down.

More than 180 flights nationwide were canceled by midday, according to the flight tracker FlightAware.com. More than half were canceled by American Airlines and its regional affiliate, American Eagle.

The storm system is expected to continue east into Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and could potentially spawn more tornadoes, according to the National Weather Service.

ABC News' Matt Gutman, Max Golembo and ABC News Radio contributed to this report.

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Syrian refugees face harsh winter in desperate conditions

BAB AL-SALAMEH, Syria (Reuters) - Huddled inside thin plastic tents in a makeshift camp after fleeing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's bombs thousands of refugees say they face a new enemy. "The cold is killing us," many of them say.

Having survived a conflict in which more than 40,000 people are estimated to have been killed, refugees at the Bab al-Salameh camp on the Syrian-Turkish border say the winter is now a bigger threat to them than the violence engulfing their country.

"The situation here is even worse than being at home," said Waad Orfali, a 27-year-old woman, dressed in a pink headscarf, velvet pink gown and slippers, as rain pounded the camp.

"At least in the village there was a doctor," said Orfali, who escaped from the northern village of Marea about two weeks ago after snipers and air strikes forced her and her family to relocate to the relative safety of the camp.

The flimsy tents scattered across the encampment offer scant relief to the thousands of men, women and children facing freezing weather and constant rain, and colder conditions are still to come.

Earlier this month, the United Nations refugee agency said more than half a million Syrian refugees are registered or waiting in other Middle Eastern countries, with about 3,000 new people seeking refugee status and assistance daily.

"I'm three months pregnant and I've been bleeding," said Orfali, who suffered from mouth sores. She said her husband suffered from kidney stones, but that neither had been able to receive medical care at the camp.

"At home there's no water or electricity and it's the same thing here," another woman chimed.

Tents reeked of damp as the rain seeped through, soaking blankets, clothes and rugs, and with no electricity in the camp, children, many wearing a single layer of clothing and slippers with no socks, shivered in the cold.

Mothers complained they received little food. By the afternoon, they said breakfast had not even been distributed. With no running water, lavatories near the mosque stank of rubbish and sewage.

"Tell them Syria's people are full of lice," said Um Ali, a mother of 12, said. She carried her ID papers in plastic to protect them from the rain in the hope that she could use them to get supplies from the camp authorities for her children.

WE JUST WANT THE SLAUGHTER TO STOP

Some refugees here are trying to scrape together a living amid the misery. They set up stands to sell cigarettes, and children zigzag through the tents hawking sweets and chocolate.

IHH, a Turkish relief group, is running the camp. Shawkat Gukman, the IHH coordinator at Bab al-Salameh, said the camp housed about 870 tents and 6,000 people with about 200 people streaming through each day.

Gukman said IHH had not been entirely in charge of running the camp until recently. He said some 5,000 pairs of children's shoes had been given out.

Challenging conditions like a lack of water and electricity made food preparation and distribution particularly challenging, Gukman said.

"The crisis may last for years. It's not clear but the war could last for a longer time."

As the war continues, more Syrians are expected to flee.

The latest estimates indicate that the total number of Syrians who have fled during the conflict has already surpassed the 700,000 refugees that the UNHCR forecast by year-end, though more than 200,000 of them have not registered formally. Another 2.5 million or more are believed to be displaced inside Syria.

Um Ahmed, a mother of five girls and two boys, said she moved to the Bab al-Salameh camp four months ago from the Hanano district of Aleppo.

"When we first came, we were sleeping under the tires of trucks. The sun burned us," she told Reuters in her three-by-four meter tent, where she had lit a coal fire and was grilling onions she said would help fight her children's infections.

Dressed in a purple sweater and red wool skirt, Um Ahmed said she had been a supporter of Assad at the beginning of the conflict, now in its 21st month.

"He said there wouldn't be a drop of blood, and now there's a river of blood. So now I'm the most opposed to Assad after what I've seen with my eyes," she said.

Like many other refugees thrust into dire conditions, Um Ahmed has tried to keep some semblance of a home in her tent. In a vain effort to keep the tent dry, a mop is perched against the tent's corner, and there is a red basin to bathe in. One side of the tent is decorated with the Syrian rebels' flag.

Complaining of chaotic scenes when the camp authorities distribute supplies, she said: "We have too much pride and dignity," to push through queues.

"We don't want money, food or water," she said. "We just want the slaughter to stop. We dream of going back home."

(Editing by Andrew Osborn)

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BCA to look into Sembawang homes affected by cracks

SINGAPORE: The Building and Construction Authority (BCA) is looking into the concerns of some residents in Sembawang who have suffered damage to their properties.

Minister for Law and Foreign Affairs as well as MP for the area K Shanmugam visited the homes of affected residents along Jalan Legundi, Jalan Derum and Sembong Road on Sunday and posted photos of the damage on his Facebook page.

At least 13 households have complained of cracks in their homes.

Mr Shanmugam said the cracks seem to have occurred after work started on a nearby development.

The minister has asked BCA to arrange for the developer to repair the homes with more serious damage first before Chinese New Year.

He also added that there would be a need to look at legal solutions if the developer does not accept responsibility.

A dialogue with the developer to address the concerns of residents is expected in two weeks.

- CNA/jc

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Delhi gang rape case: Constable Subhash Tomar cremated with full state honours

NEW DELHI: Delhi Police constable Subhash Tomar was cremated with full state honours here on Tuesday.

Delhi chief minister Sheila Dikshit, minister of state for home RPN Singh, Union minister Ajit Singh and Union home secretary RK Singh were present at the Nigambodh Ghat here to pay their last respects.

Delhi Police Commissioner Neeraj Kumar and other senior officials from the police department also attended the cremation ceremony.

Tomar, who suffered serious injuries during violent protests at India Gate on Sunday, died today after battling for life at the Ram Manohar Lohia Hospital here.

Tomar, who was on ventilator since his admission at the Ram Manohar Lohia Hospital on Sunday evening, was declared dead at 6.40am.

Delhi Police, which has described the death of constable Tomar as extremely tragic, has earlier decided that all personnel will donate one day's salary to his family.

"Delhi Police family and our Commissioner stand with his family and all compensation and other things admissible will be granted to him," said Delhi Police PRO Rajan Bhagat.

"Constable Subhash Tomar, 45-year-old, posted at PS Karawal Nagar was deployed on law and order duties on Sunday in New Delhi district succumbed to his injuries which he suffered during the violence created by protestors. The Delhi Police stands with his family and we are in deep sorrow," he added.

Tomar is survived by his wife and three children - two sons and a daughter.

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Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy

CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.

Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.

But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.

"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.

Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.

Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)

Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.

Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.

"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."

The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."

In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:

—Previous violent or aggressive behavior

—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse

—Guns in the home

—Use of drugs or alcohol

—Brain damage from a head injury

Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.

Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.

Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.

According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.

Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.

Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.

And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.

All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.

Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.

Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.

Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.

___

Online:

American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org

___

AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

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Newtown Christmas: 'We Know They'll Feel Loved'

As residents prepared to observe Christmas less than two weeks after a gunman killed 20 children and six educators at an elementary school, people sharing in the town's mourning brought offerings of cards, handmade snowflakes and sympathy.

Tiny empty Christmas stockings with the victims' names on them hung from trees in the neighborhood where the children were shot. On Christmas Eve, residents said they would light luminaries outside their homes in memory of the victims.

"We know that they'll feel loved. They'll feel that somebody actually cares," said Treyvon Smalls, a 15-year-old from a few towns away who arrived at town hall with hundreds of cards and paper snowflakes collected from around the state.

At the Trinity Episcopal Church, less than 2 miles from the school, an overflow crowd of several hundred people attended Christmas Eve services. They were greeted by the sounds of a children's choir echoing throughout a sanctuary hall that had its walls decorated with green wreaths adorned with red bows.

The church program said flowers were donated in honor of Sandy Hook shooting victims, identified by name or as the "school angels" and "Sandy Hook families."

Julio Cortez, File/AP Photo

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The service, which generally took on a celebratory tone, made only a few vague references to the shooting. Pastor Kathie Adams-Shepherd led the congregation in praying "that the joy and consolation of the wonderful counselor might enliven all who are touched by illness, danger, or grief, especially all those families affected by the shootings in Sandy Hook."

Police say the gunman, Adam Lanza, killed his mother in her bed before his Dec. 14 rampage and committed suicide as he heard officers arriving. Authorities have yet to give a theory about his motive.

While the grief is still fresh, some residents are urging political activism in the wake of the tragedy. A grassroots group called Newtown United has been meeting at the library to talk about issues ranging from gun control, to increasing mental health services to the types of memorials that could be erected for the victims. Some clergy members have said they also intend to push for change.

"We seek not to be the town of tragedy," said Rabbi Shaul Praver of Congregation Adath Israel. "But, we seek to be the town where all the great changes started."

Since the shooting, messages similar to the ones delivered Monday have arrived from around the world. People have donated toys, books, money and more. A United Way fund, one of many, has collected $3 million. People have given nearly $500,000 to a memorial scholarship fund at the University of Connecticut. On Christmas Day, police from other towns have agreed to work so Newtown officers can have the time off.

At Washington's National Cathedral, the 20 children who were killed also were remembered. Angels made of paper doilies were used to adorn the altar in the children's chapel. They'll be displayed there through Jan. 6.

In the center of Newtown's Sandy Hook section Monday, a steady stream of residents and out-of-towners snapped pictures, lit candles and dropped off children's gifts at an expansive memorial filled with stuffed animals, poems, flowers, posters and cards.

"All the families who lost those little kids, Christmas will never be the same," said Philippe Poncet, a Newtown resident originally from France. "Everybody across the world is trying to share the tragedy with our community here."

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Afghan policewoman kills coalition contractor in Kabul: NATO

KABUL (Reuters) - An Afghan woman wearing a police uniform shot dead on Monday a civilian contractor working for Western forces in the police chief's compound in Kabul, NATO said.

The incident is likely to raise troubling questions about the direction of an unpopular war.

It appeared to be the first time that a woman member of Afghanistan's security forces carried out such an attack.

There were conflicting reports about the victim.

A spokesman for the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) said a U.S. police adviser was killed by an Afghan policewoman. Then ISAF said in a statement only that it was a "contracted civilian employee" who was killed.

Mohammad Zahir, head of the police criminal investigation department, described the incident as an "insider attack" in which Afghan forces turn their weapons on Western troops they are supposed to be working with. He initially said the victim was a U.S. soldier.

After more than 10 years of war, militants are capable of striking Western targets in the heart of the capital, and foreign forces worry that Afghan police and military forces they are supposed to work with can suddenly turn on them.

The policewoman approached her victim as he was walking in the heavily guarded police chief's compound in a bustling area of Kabul. She then drew a pistol and shot him once, a senior police official told Reuters.

The police complex is close to the Interior Ministry where in February, two American officers were shot dead at close range at a time anger gripped the country over the burning of copies of the Muslim holy book at a NATO base.

"She is now under interrogation. She is crying and saying 'what have I done'," said the official, of the police officer who worked in a section of the Interior Ministry responsible for gender awareness issues.

TIPS FOR TROOPS

The insider incidents, also known as green-on-blue attacks, have undermined trust between coalition and Afghan forces who are under mounting pressure to contain the Taliban insurgency before most NATO combat troops withdraw by the end of 2014.

Security responsibilities in a country plagued by conflict for decades will be handed to Afghan security forces.

Many Afghans fear a civil war like one dominated by warlords after the withdrawal of Soviet occupying forces in 1989 could erupt again, or the Taliban will make another push to seize power if they reject a nascent peace process.

At least 52 members of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force have been killed this year by Afghans wearing police or army uniforms.

Insider attacks now account for one in every five combat deaths suffered by NATO-led forces in Afghanistan, and 16 percent of all U.S. combat casualties, according to 2012 data.

Hoping to stop the increase in the attacks, Afghan Defense Ministry officials have given their troops tips in foreign culture.

They are told not to be offended by a hearty pat on the back or an American soldier asking after your wife's health.

NATO attributes only about a quarter of the attacks to the Taliban, saying the rest are caused by personal grievances and misunderstandings. Last year, there were 35 deaths in such attacks.

(Writing by Michael Georgy; Editing by Robert Birsel)

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Cricket: Eager fans await India-Pakistan matches

NEW DELHI: India and Pakistan will soon resume their competitive cricket ties with the upcoming series.

The two sides continued to play each other in World Cup competitions and at third country venues.

But this is the first time in five years that Pakistani cricketers are visiting India for an exclusive competition between the two rival nations.

And that five-year gap has just understandably intensified the excitement and anticipation of India's cricket fans.

Pakistani cricket players have arrived in India to play their first official series in five years.

The South Asian rivals will be playing three One Day Internationals and two Twenty20s, and it all begins on December 25.

The last series between India and Pakistan held in either of the two home countries was in 2007-2008 when Pakistan visited India.

But relations between the two countries soured after the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks, in which 166 people were killed.

India blamed the Pakistan-based militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba for the attack.

Soumil Patel, a cricket fan in Ahmedabad city, said: "Expectations from this will be a good cricket, good competition and also some good relationship which can be made up between the two countries. Cricket is the best thing, we can improve our relationship between both the countries."

The matches will be played in five cities including Chennai, Delhi, Kolkata, Ahmedabad and Bangalore.

Most Indian fans are hoping for a good competition and, of course, a victory for their home team in the much-awaited series.

In southern Chennai city, eager fans waited in long queues to buy tickets for the match to be played at the M A Chidambaram Stadium on December 30.

Nitesh, a cricket fan in Chennai city, said: he had waited nearly eight hours in the queue to buy his ticket.

Wasim Mushtaq, a cricket fan in Chennai city, said: "This is a dream come true for me. I am just here to inquire about the tickets. Well, we are very excited about this match. Believe me or not, I am ready to remain here for the whole night to get the tickets."

India is likely to issue 3,000 visas to Pakistani cricket fans attending their team's first cricket series in India after five years.

The series is also likely to be a money spinner with private broadcaster ESPN demanding nearly US$18,000 for a 10-second advertising spot for T20s and US$11,000 for one-day matches.

Meanwhile, police bomb squad officers and sniffer dogs combed Bangalore stadium on Monday as part of a massive security operation for the start of the first Pakistan cricket tour to India for five years.

Hardline Indian nationalist organisations including Vishwa Hindu Parishad and the Shiv Sena have both threatened to hold protests outside all the venues for the five-match series which begins in Bangalore on Tuesday evening.

"As the governments of both the countries have agreed to hold the bilateral series, no organisation will be allowed to disrupt the match," Bangalore police commissioner Jyotiprakash Mirji told reporters on the eve of the first match.

An AFP reporter saw bomb squad officers carrying out a painstaking inspection with their dogs in and around the Chinnaswamy stadium in Bangalore, the capital of the southeastern state of Karnataka.

As many as 5,000 security personnel, including a 100-member bomb squad, have been deployed to cover the match, fearing attempts to disrupt the game or even stage an attack.

Shiv Sena, a Hindu nationalist party based in Mumbai, has branded the tour a "national shame" and accused Indian cricket authorities of "betraying the country for sake of money".

The same organisation dug up the wicket at the Feroz Shah Kotla cricket ground in the capital New Delhi in 1999 ahead of an India-Pakistan Test although the match did go ahead.

The Indian government has issued a record number of 3,000 visas to fans from Pakistan attending the series.

- CNA/AFP/de

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You can't march in protest to President's house: Shinde

NEW DELHI: The government is not opposed to people holding peaceful protests, but staging a march to the presidential house is not right, home minister Sushilkumar Shinde said on Monday.

Shinde said he has been meeting student representatives since the day protests started in the capital against the gang-rape of a young woman on December 16.

"I accept that calm and quiet protestors can demonstrate, and there is no problem (with that) as it is the right of the public," he told a TV channel.

"But gathering at Vijay Chowk, trying to breach barricades and marching to Rashtrapati Bhavan is not right. Rashtrapati Bhavan is prestigious for the country."

According to Shinde: "Hooligans have now joined the protestors."

He said the home ministry was briefing the prime minister daily on the issue.

"One of my constables was critically injured, and 18 policeman are injured. The hooligans can't be identified in 3,000 people," the home minister said.

Downplaying criticism over his inability to meet and calm the young protestors, Shinde said: "It is easy to ask the home minister to go to India Gate and talk. Tomorrow, if some other party holds demonstrations, why should not the home minister go there? Tomorrow, BJP could demonstrate, tomorrow Maoists will come here to demonstrate with weapons," he said.

"You should understand the government's role. The government should not go anywhere. Why should the government go anywhere," Shinde said.

Shinde ruled out sacking Delhi police chief Neeraj Kumar, as some people have demanded. He said that once the situation had calmed, a review would be conducted.

"I will take action and I will not spare anyone. I have information that senior police officers will also be coming under suspension. On the night of the incident, on that route, out of five CCTVs, three were not working. In one of them, they got footage that was sent to the forensic laboratory, and from that, they nabbed the accused the next morning," he said.

Shinde said the government had announced several measures to ensure the safety of women in the capital.

"The government is very serious about these issues. The accused were immediately arrested, and we have said that the case would be taken on a fast-track basis. We are following proceedings in court on a day-to-day basis," he said.

Shinde said the government would press for day-to-day hearings in such cases and ask the Lt. governor and chief minister to activate committees of home guards and civil defence personnel attached to every police station.

"I've convened a meeting on January 4 of all chief secretaries and directors-general of police to take account of the situation in their states about rape cases, and the action taken. It takes time and it just does not happen," he said.

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Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy

CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.

Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.

But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.

"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.

Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.

Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)

Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.

Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.

"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."

The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."

In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:

—Previous violent or aggressive behavior

—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse

—Guns in the home

—Use of drugs or alcohol

—Brain damage from a head injury

Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.

Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.

Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.

According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.

Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.

Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.

And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.

All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.

Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.

Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.

Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.

___

Online:

American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org

___

AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

Read More..